Price trends, forecasts, and market data for asphalt shingles, metal roofing, TPO/EPDM, and commercial systems.
Current direction, confidence, year-over-year change, and volatility.
Roofing materials encompass both steep-slope products (asphalt shingles, metal panels, concrete and clay tile) and low-slope/flat-roof systems (TPO, EPDM, built-up, modified bitumen). The market is driven by a combination of new construction demand and the massive re-roofing replacement cycle — the average roof has a 20-30 year lifespan, creating constant replacement demand independent of new building activity.
Asphalt shingles dominate the residential market with roughly 75% market share. The commercial low-slope market has shifted heavily toward TPO membrane in recent decades. Both segments are influenced by petroleum-based input costs, but they respond to different demand signals and have distinct competitive dynamics.
Asphalt shingle manufacturing is domestic, dominated by three producers: Owens Corning, GAF (Standard Industries), and CertainTeed. These companies operate regional plants and distribution to limit transportation costs for this heavy, commodity product. Metal roofing panels are produced by a mix of large manufacturers (ATAS, Firestone Metal Products) and regional roll-formers.
Commercial membrane roofing (TPO, PVC, EPDM) is manufactured by companies including Carlisle, Firestone, Johns Manville, and Sika. These products are lighter and ship economically over longer distances. Lead times for standard roofing products are typically 1-3 weeks, though post-storm surge demand can extend availability to 4-8 weeks in affected regions.
Current risk factors affecting roofing availability and lead times.
Roofing demand peaks from spring through fall, especially in northern climates where winter installation is impractical for many systems. Storm season (May-October) creates unpredictable demand spikes. Manufacturer price increases typically take effect in Q1 and sometimes again mid-year.
For details on how we calculate these forecasts, see our methodology. View all categories on the Price Index overview.
Asphalt (the primary ingredient in shingles) is a petroleum byproduct. Sustained crude oil price increases of 20%+ typically lead to 5-10% asphalt shingle price increases within 1-2 quarters. TPO and EPDM membranes also have petrochemical inputs that respond to energy price changes.
Standing seam metal roofing typically costs 2-3x more than architectural asphalt shingles (installed). The premium buys 50+ year expected lifespan, superior wind resistance, and potential insurance discounts in storm-prone areas.
Storms create sudden, concentrated demand for roofing materials and labor. Manufacturers cannot quickly increase production, so prices rise as demand exceeds supply. Regional price premiums of 10-25% are common in the months following major hurricanes or hailstorm events.
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