Price trends, forecasts, and market data for dimensional lumber, engineered wood products, and structural panels.
Current direction, confidence, year-over-year change, and volatility.
Lumber is the most volatile major construction material category, with prices capable of doubling or halving within a single year. The historic lumber price spike — when framing lumber briefly exceeded $1,700 per thousand board feet — demonstrated how quickly this market can move and how significantly it impacts project budgets. Framing lumber and structural panels typically represent 15-25% of material costs in wood-frame residential construction.
The market encompasses dimensional lumber (2x4s through 2x12s), structural panels (plywood and OSB), and engineered wood products (LVL, I-joists, glulam). Each product has distinct supply dynamics, but all share the fundamental constraint of forest resource availability and mill processing capacity.
U.S. lumber supply comes from domestic mills (primarily in the South and Pacific Northwest) and Canadian imports (primarily from British Columbia and eastern provinces). Canada supplies roughly 25-30% of U.S. lumber consumption, making the softwood lumber trade dispute a persistent pricing factor. Canadian duties can add roughly 8-15% to imported lumber costs.
Engineered wood products (LVL, I-joists, glulam) are manufactured by a smaller set of specialized producers including Weyerhaeuser, Boise Cascade, and Louisiana-Pacific. These products have more stable pricing than commodity lumber but face capacity constraints during demand surges. Lead times can extend from standard 1-2 weeks to 6-8 weeks during peak periods.
Current risk factors affecting lumber & engineered wood availability and lead times.
Lumber prices follow a well-documented seasonal pattern: rising from January through May as builders stock up for construction season, then softening from mid-summer through fall as activity slows. This seasonal pattern is overlaid on longer-term trends driven by housing demand and supply capacity.
For details on how we calculate these forecasts, see our methodology. View all categories on the Price Index overview.
Lumber is a biological commodity with inelastic short-term supply (you cannot quickly grow more trees or build new mills). Demand is concentrated in housing, which is highly interest rate sensitive. This combination of rigid supply and cyclical demand creates extreme price volatility.
Canada supplies roughly 30% of U.S. lumber. Combined duties of roughly 8-15% on Canadian imports effectively raise the floor price for all lumber sold in the U.S. Changes in duty rates — which are periodically reviewed — can move the market by 5-10% within weeks of announcement.
Engineered wood products (LVL, I-joists) have lower price volatility than commodity lumber because their value-added manufacturing smooths out raw material swings. However, they are not immune to cost increases, and lead time spikes during demand surges can be more disruptive than dimensional lumber shortages.
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